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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.